Simulation ofChanges inAgricultural Land use in the Coastal Area of Nam Dinh Province using the CLUMondo Model

Received: 04-06-2021

Accepted: 06-07-2021

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Issue: Vol. 19 No. 8 (2021)

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TÀI NGUYÊN VÀ MÔI TRƯỜNG

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Hoa, N., An, N., & Giang, L. (2024). Simulation ofChanges inAgricultural Land use in the Coastal Area of Nam Dinh Province using the CLUMondo Model. Vietnam Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 19(8), 1049–1062. http://testtapchi.vnua.edu.vn/index.php/vjasvn/article/view/872

Simulation ofChanges inAgricultural Land use in the Coastal Area of Nam Dinh Province using the CLUMondo Model

Nguyen Thi Phuong Hoa (*) 1 , Ngo The An 2 , Le Thi Giang 2

  • 1 Cục Viễn thám quốc gia
  • 2 Khoa Tài nguyên và Môi trường, Học viện Nông nghiệp Việt Nam

    • Keywords

    Land use change, CLUMondo model, GIS, land use simulation, coastal area, Nam Dinh

    Abstract


    This study applied the CLUMondo model to predict agricultural land-use changes to 2030 in the coastal area of ​​Nam Dinh province. The predictions weredonebased on the correlations between the probability of changesrelated to each land use typeand its location suitability factors. Model outputs were validated by ROC statistic and Kappa coefficient.Results showedthatchanges inagricultural land use in 2030followed scenario 1 (baseline) with a decrease in rice areabut increase in the aquaculture area. The trend was similar in scenario 2 (as the land use planning) but the rice area was more decreased. In addition, in both scenarios, there was an increase in annual and perennial crops. Under the assumption of scenario 2, freshwater aquaculture tendedto continue expanding to paddies, while a portion of brackish water aquaculture wasconverted to forest land. Therefore, when implementing land use planning, it is necessary to prepare solutions for trading-off between staple food and aquaculture to ensure food security and sustainable development for local communities.

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