Estimatingthe Basic Reproductive Number and Vaccine Coverage for African Swine Fever Prevention in Large-scale Fattening Farms

Received: 23-12-2021

Accepted: 05-07-2022

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Issue: Vol. 20 No. 7 (2022)

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CHĂN NUÔI – THÚ Y – THỦY SẢN

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Ngan, M., Ngoc, V., & Thai, T. (2024). Estimatingthe Basic Reproductive Number and Vaccine Coverage for African Swine Fever Prevention in Large-scale Fattening Farms. Vietnam Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 20(7), 892–899. http://testtapchi.vnua.edu.vn/index.php/vjasvn/article/view/1017

Estimatingthe Basic Reproductive Number and Vaccine Coverage for African Swine Fever Prevention in Large-scale Fattening Farms

Mai Thi Ngan (*) 1 , Vu Thi Ngoc 1 , Truong Ha Thai 1

  • 1 Khoa Thú y, Học viện Nông nghiệp Việt Nam

    • Keywords

    African Swine Fever, basic reproduction number, large-scale, vaccine coverage

    Abstract


    African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease with a mortality of up to 100%, resulting in high economic losses. In Vietnam, ASF was first reported in February 2019 and quickly spread to all provinces. This study aimed to estimate the basic reproduction number (R0) and developed a dynamic model to explain how ASF spreads in the pig herd during the first epidemic year to suggest vaccine coverage level required to prevent future outbreaks. The outbreak data were collected from 6 large-scale fattening farms within the first wave of ASF outbreaks. Two methods were used to estimate the R0including the Exponential Growth method (EG) and Maximum Likelihood method (ML). The average R0values were estimated at 2.97 (95%CI: 2.44-3.59) and 3.18 (95%CI: 2.52-3.96), respectively. Based on the worst-case scenario, all pigs in a herd would be infected and removed within 50 days. The vaccination rate ranges from 75-94% of pigs in each farm depending on the vaccine effectiveness.

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